The Overhang

The Overhang 2.3: Boundary Issues Part 3

The third part in a series on the upcoming boundary changes, looking at the rules for redrawing electorates and the philosophies than inform their…

Mar 17

The Overhang 2.2: Boundary Issues Parts 1 & 2

In this first part of a series, we look at how the results of the 2023 Census affect the number of electorates and the broad outlines of population…

Mar 16

February 2025

The Overhang 2.1 - Halfway(ish)

Ka mua, ka muri – looking backwards to look forwards: what past governments' polling performance can tell us about the possible futures of the Sixth…

Feb 9

October 2023

A sketch of the coming rollercoaster

How support for parties could (emphasis on could) evolve between final opinion polls and the special vote.

Oct 13, 2023 • 

rustie

Final nationwide polling update

A brief check on the overall nationwide picture based on the final polls.

Oct 12, 2023

2023 electorate predictions - Parts 3 and 4

Had to break this up because email servers get grumpy when you drop 12,000 words in one go.

Oct 11, 2023 • 

rustie

20203 electorate predictions - Parts 1 and 2

A belated and bloatre

Oct 11, 2023 • 

rustie

July 2023

The Overhang 1.1 - Rise of the rest

A polling history of why everything feels so fraught rn.

Jul 23, 2023 • 

rustie

November 2022