I generally don’t want to do 5,000 word updates, but this post pulls together the first half our our electorate updates in long-form version rather than Twitter thread version.
Note that all numbers are as-of 7 October. A (mercifully shorter) updated will follow on Friday.
If you’d rather just look at a map, here you go:
Auckland Central
🟢Solid Green hold
Candidate vote
🟢Gre – Swarbrick (list 3rd) 42% – odds 90%
🔵Nat – Muralidhar (43rd) 36% – 10%
🔴Lab – Sims (63rd) 16% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🟢
Party vote
🔵Nat 32
🟢Gre 26
🔴Lab 20
🟡ACT 10
⚫NZF 4
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
Green incumbent Chlöe Swarbrick pulled off a somewhat surprising win in 2020. With the benefit of incumbency likely to improve her performance among voters from all parties, a reasonable (+7) expected local party vote swing towards the Greens, and the perception of a two-horse race with National’s Mahesh Muralidhar should see her retain the seat.
Downside risk comes from the even stronger (+11) expected party vote swing towards National in the seat, and the chance that a strong performance from Labour’s Oscar Sims splits the left vote.
Polling had the race closer than the model does (Curia 24 Sep: 🟢Gre 38, 🔵Nat 36, 🔴Lab 17) but Swarbrick’s 2020 over-performance vs polling and the difficulty of polling electorates leave us reasonably confident the margin will be wider than that suggests.
If Swarbrick loses, her position at 3rd on the list will see her re-enter Parliament regardless. Given their rankings, neither Muralidhar at 43rd or Sims at 63rd will enter off the list.
Banks Peninsula
🔴Solid Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – McLellan (list 27th) 46% – odds 99%
🔵Nat – Weenink (40th) 32% – 1%
🟢Gre – Pham (6th) 13% – 0%
🟡ACT – Trask (10th) 4% – 0%
History
🔵🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 29
🔴Lab 27
🟢Gre 21
🟡ACT 9
⚫NZF 5
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
Labour incumbent Tracey McLellan took over the seat from long-time incumbent Ruth Dyson in 2020. Despite a -23 expected swing away from Labour on the party vote, incumbency and support from Green voters should see her retain the seat.
Very remote chance for National’s Vanessa Weenink would require a combination of a further party vote swing to National, a weak incumbency effect for McLellan, and an over-performance from new Green candidate Lan Pham who takes over from veteran (and comparatively well-performing) Green candidate Eugenie Sage
At 27th, McLellan would not return on the list if she somehow loses the seat. Weenink at 40th is also entirely reliant on winning the seat. Pham’s high placing (6th) will see her entering Parliament, and ACT’s Trask is probably safe at 10th.
Bay of Plenty
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Rutherford (list, n/a) 60% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Taikato (54th) 19% – 0%
⚫NZF – Murfitt (11th) 9% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 47
🟡ACT 13
🔴Lab 12
⚫NZF 10
🟢Gre 8
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
New National candidate Tom Rutherford takes over from retiring incumbent Todd Muller. While Muller held the seat by 7% in the 2020 red wave, the seats solid National lean (PVI +13) and large (+12) party vote swing towards National put this beyond doubt.
Labour’s Pare Taikato at 54th will not enter on the list, but NZ First’s Kristen Murfitt at 11th is an outside chance if the party over-performs its current polling nationwide.
Botany
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Luxon (list 1st) 66% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Singh (n/a) 28% – 0%
Party vote
🔵Nat 49
🔴Lab 27
🟡ACT 9
🟢Gre 6
⚫NZF 5
🟣Con 2
History
➖➖➖➖🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Commentary
National incumbent and leader Christopher Luxon took over the seat from scandal-plagued rebel Jami-Lee Ross in 2020. The “favourite son” effect (a boost in support across the board party leaders see), incumbency, and a natural blue lean (PVI +14) will see him retain the seat with a greatly increased margin.
Christchurch Central
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Webb (list 20th) 42% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Stephens (29th) 33% – 0%
🟢Gre – Carter (14th) 16% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔴🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 30
🔴Lab 28
🟢Gre 19
🟡ACT 8
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 5
Commentary
Labour incumbent Webb has held the seat since 2017 after winning it back from National’s Wagner. Despite the likely swing away from Labour (-16) towards National (+9) and the Greens (+9), his own above-average performance will return him.
At 29th on the list, National’s Dale Stephens has a slightly below 50% chance of a place in parliament. Barring a significant party vote under-performance by the Greens’, Kahurangi Carter at 14th should be elected from the list.
Christchurch East
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Davidson (list 57th) 49% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Stock (50th) 31% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 34
🔵Nat 28
🟢Gre 15
🟡ACT 8
⚫NZF 8
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
Labour newcomer Reuben Davidson takes over the seat from retiring incumbent Poto Williams. Despite the overall swing and the loss of incumbency advantage, Davidson is certain to win the solidly red (PVI+8) seat. No candidates will be elected on their parties’ lists.
Coromandel
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Simpson (list 55th) 57% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Riley (n/a) 22% – 0%
History
🔵🟢🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 44
🔴Lab 15
🟡ACT 13
⚫NZF 11
🟢Gre 10
🟣Con 2
Commentary
National incumbent Scott Simpson held the seat by a less-than-comfortable 7% margin in 2020. In 2023, with National’s overall improvement he will be safely returned. No candidates will on their parties’ list.
Dunedin
🔴Likely Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Brooking (list 23rd) 33% – odds 90%
🟢Gre – Hernandez (17th) 24% – 8%
🔵Nat – Woodhouse (n/a) 21% – 1%
🔣Ind – O’Malley (n/a) 10% – 1%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 31
🟢Gre 28
🔵Nat 20
🟡ACT 7
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 5
Commentary
One of the more interesting/strange candidate races. Labour list MP Rachael Brooking takes over from retiring Labour incumbent David Clark. Under normal circumstances, Brooking should expect to comfortably win, and may in fact do so. However…
Events have conspired to make the race less certain. First, National list-MP and long-term local candidate Michael Woodhouse – dissatisfied with his offered list ranking – has all-but conceded the race and is not actively campaigning.
Second, the Green’s Francisco Hernandez is running an active (if informal) campaign in a strongly Green-leaning (PVI +15, third highest in the country) seat. Finally, a late independent entry by centre-left local councillor O’Malley may attract a mix of Labour voters disatistifed with the party and National voters left without a candidate.
If she somehow misses, Brooking has a just below-even chance of a list place at 23rd, dependent on other results. On current polling, Hernandez would just miss out at 17th on the Green list, but even a tiny improvement would see him in.
East Coast
🔵Solid National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Kirkpatrick (list 44th) 46% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Coffey (36th) 32% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 37
🔴Lab 24
🟢Gre 11
⚫NZF 10
🟡ACT 10
🔝TOP 2
Commentary
Retiring incumbent Labour MP Kiri Allen won the seat in the 2020 red wave with a defendable margin of 15%. The seat looked to be competitive at the start of the year, but following Allen’s scandals and resignation, National’s Dana Kirkpatrick is now safe.
Labour have tagged current list MP Tamati Coffey to stage a rear-guard action, but given the swing against Labour and the loss of Allen’s incumbency, his chances are non-existent. At 36th on the list, he will get to retire as originally planned.
East Coast Bays
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Stanford (list 7th) 68% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Chen (33rd) 21% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 53
🟡ACT 13
🔴Lab 12
🟢Gre 10
⚫NZF 5
🟣Con 3
Commentary
In one of the bluest seats in the country, and as the best performer with non-National voters, National’s Erica Sanford is perhaps the safest MP in the country. An unassailable 23% margin in 2020 should grow to nearing 50% in 2023.
Current Labour list MP Naisi Chen’s forecast 21% is flattered by the absence of a Green candidate, and at 33rd on the Labour list absent a miracle for the party or a catastrophe for her colleagues in other races, she is likely leaving Parliament.
Epsom
🟡Safe ACT hold
Candidate vote
🟡ACT – Seymour (list 1st) 52% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Goldsmith (5th) 22% – 0%
🔴Lab – Belich (26th) 13% – 0%
🟢Gre – Xu-Nan (16th) 8% – 0%
⚫NZF – Unkovich (8th) 1% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🟡🟡🟡🟡🟡🟡
Party vote
🔵Nat 49
🟢Gre 15
🟡ACT 14
🔴Lab 14
🔝TOP 4
⚫NZF 3
Commentary
ACT leader David Seymour will be safely returned in his Epsom anchor seat. Notwithstanding ACT’s recent slide, the party has still improved nationwide relative to 2020, and he performs will with voters from all parties.
The decline of the Hipsters for Goldsmith vote (Labour and Green voters trying to elect National’s Paul Goldsmith against his will) leaves the seat essentially uncontested. However, there’s a realistic prospect of the seat having five list MPs.
Goldsmith at 5th on the list is assured of a spot in all but the strangest of scenarios. The Greens’ Lawrence Xu-Nan (16th) and NZ First’s Tanya Unkovich (8th) are both (just) in on current numbers. Finally, Labour’s Camilla Belich is an outside chance at 26th.
On the party vote, picking the Greens at 2nd might raise eyebrows, and it may not come off. Seymour’s success masks a long-term (relative) trend away from ACT, and conversely the Greens’ PVI position has improved every year since 2002.
Hamilton East
🔵Likely National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Hamilton (list n/a) 49% – odds 87%
🔴Lab – Dansey (31st) 38% – 13%
🟡ACT – Parmar (13th) 2% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 36
🔴Lab 26
🟢Gre 13
🟡ACT 10
⚫NZF 5
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
The first genuine contest. A bellwether seat on the party vote (second only to Maungakiekie in 2020), Hamilton East sees Georgie Dansey (Labour’s 2022 Hamilton West byelection candidate) face aptly-named local councillor National’s Ryan Hamilton.
Retiring incumbent and ANZAC Anschluss advocate Jamie Strange took the seat with a defendable 7% margin in 2020. The loss of incumbency and the swing to National should see Hamilton win comfortably.
However, the absence of a Green candidate and the presence of an ACT one gives Dansey a modest chance if she can over-perform with swing voters moving to National.
At 31st , Dansey has a slim chance of entering on the Labour list (the only non-incumbent MP in this position). Hamilton is unranked, so is reliant on the seat. ACT candidate Himanshu Parmer at 13th is just in on current numbers.
Hamilton West
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Potaka (list 24th) 47% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Williamson (62nd) 33% – 0%
🟢Gre – Doyle (18th) 6% – 0%
History
🔵🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵(🔴/🔵)
Party vote
🔵Nat 34
🔴Lab 28
🟡ACT 10
🟢Gre 9
⚫NZF 8
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
Ever-so-slightly more left-leaning than its neighbour across the river (the seventh most representative seat in 2020), Hamilton West will see 2022 byelection winner National’s Tama Potaka safely returned.
Erstwhile Labour rebel Gaurav Sharma won comfortably by 15% in 2020 and would have been a 50/50 shot to return. However, with Potaka taking over the incumbency advantage following the byelection, the seat is safely National’s.
Replacement Labour candidate Myra Williamson will not be elected at 62nd on Labour’s list. However, Green candidate Benjamin Doyle could be if the Greens improve nationally.
Hauraki-Waikato
🔴Solid Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Mahuta (list n/a) 55% – odds 91%
🟠TPM – Maipi-Clarke (4th) 41% – 9%
🟣FNZ – Pokere-Phillips (4th) 5% – 0%
History
➖🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 39
🟠TPM 36
🟢Gre 8
⚫NZF 6
🔵Nat 4
🔣Oth 4
Commentary
Labour’s safest Māori seat should be an easy win for Nanaia Mahuta (the only candidate to hold the seat on its current boundaries) returned. However, the swing away from Labour and towards Te Pati Māori, combined with unpredictable splitting give Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke a chance.
While TPM have seen only a small increase in nationwide support (up 2% from 1.2% in 2020 to nearer 3% on current polling), this support tends to be highly concentrated in the Māori seats. Because of this, the swing in Hauraki-Waikato is likely to be 15x as large.
Polling has shown a closer race than expected (Curia, 27 Sep: 🔴Lab 36, 🟠TPM 32) but the high number of undecideds and frankly oddly-reported numbers make this less reliable. The presence of 2017 TPM candidate Donna Pokere-Phillips now with Freedom’s NZ only adds to the uncertainty.
On current party vote polling, Maipi-Clarke would just be returned on the list at 4th, but given the unpredictability of other Māori seat results, could miss out.
Hutt South
🔵Toss-up National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Bishop (list 3rd) 45% – odds 65%
🔴Lab – Andersen (17th) 41% – 35%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔵🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 31
🔵Nat 31
🟢Gre 15
🟡ACT 8
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
Among the closest and most difficult to predict races, Hutt South sees a 2020 rematch between Labour incumbent Ginny Andersen and former incumbent Chris Bishop. On balance, Bishop is slightly ahead but the seat will probably be decided on specials.
The seat is favourable for Labour in normal times (PVI+6). However, on current polling the parties should be tied on the local party vote. On top of this, Bishop over-performs with Labour voters (20% in 2020, vs an average of 9%).
With swing voters returning to National, that 20% figure will drop. But likely neither candidate will benefit from an incumbency bump given they have both held the seat. At 17th Andersen may just miss out on the list, other results depending. At 3rd on his party’s list, Bishop is guaranteed to return.
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
🟠Toss-up Māori hold
Candidate vote
🟠TPM – Whaitiri (list 3rd) 51% – odds 71%
🔴Lab – Tangaere-Manuel (n/a) 47% – 29%
🟣Con – Tuhakaraina (35th) 2% – 0%
History
⚫🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴(🔴/🟠)
Party vote
🔴Lab 45
🟠TPM 32
🟢Gre 9
⚫NZF 5
🔣Oth 4
🔵Nat 3
Commentary
What was already a close contest on current polling is even more complicated given Meka Whaitiri’s defection from Labour to Te Pāti Māori. We have this as a TPM hold, but it’s borderline impossible to model.
Fundamentals would normally favour a TPM “incumbent”: an estimated +20% swing in TPM’s favour, greater two-tick loyalty among TPM voters than Labour ones, and the absence of a Green candidate following Elizabeth Kerekere’s resignation.
However, whether personal loyalty and name recognition trump the sense of betrayal Labour party voters will feel is difficult to say. It’s very possible Labour voters stick with (or is that switch to??) Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, handing her victory.
In the event Whaitiri does miss out, she would return at 3rd on the TPM list, but upsets in other Māori seats (Your Tais Tokerau/Tonga or Tāmaki Makaurau) could see her miss out. As a late replacement, Tangaere-Manuel is unranked.
Ilam
🔵Likely National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Campbell (list 63rd) 40% – odds 82%
🔝TOP – Manji (1st) 29% – 18%
🔴Lab – Pallett (51st) 22% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 39
🔴Lab 19
🟢Gre 16
🟡ACT 12
🔝TOP 7
⚫NZF 4
Commentary
The high-water mark of the red tide in 2020 saw Labour’s Sarah Pallett defeat eight-term incumbent Gerry Brownlee. In 2023, former local councillor then 2017 independent candidate, and now TOP leader Raf Manji is trying to use the seat to anchor his party’s chances.
The overall swing back towards National and Brownlee’s retirement would have seen (and probably still will see) National’s Hamish Campbell easily take the seat back, given its National PVI+4 and Labour PVI-7 leanings.
Using Manji’s numbers from his 2017 independent run still show him behind without an even implicit nod from National or Labour. An overperformance with National, Labour, and (the sizeable number of) Green voters might just be enough.
Polling was not favourable (Curia, 23 Aug: 🔵Nat 43, 🔴Lab 20, 🔝 TOP 18) but atypical cases like this are hard to model with certainty.
With Campbell at 63rd and Pallett at 51st on their party’s lists, they are both dependent on an electorate win. Despite being 1st on his party’s, given TOP’s nationwide polling of ~2.5%, Manji is too.
Invercargill
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Simmonds (list 16th) 62% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Craig (44th) 33% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 41
🔴Lab 22
🟡ACT 12
⚫NZF 9
🟢Gre 8
🔣Oth 2
Commentary
Proving that candidate quality still matters even if you can’t reliably predict it, in 2020 National’s Penny Simmonds managed to outrun her party for a narrow 0.6% victory. A rematch with 2020 Labour candidate Liz Craig won’t be that close.
A predicted net swing of 36% towards National on the party vote, and the benefits that come with incumbency should see Simmond’s margin increase 50-fold to nearer 30%. At 44th on the party list, Craig will not be returned to Parliament.
Kaikōura
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Smith (list 56th) 54% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – DeWhirst (n/a) 20% – 0%
⚫NZF – Arbuckle (6th) 7% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 44
🔴Lab 16
🟡ACT 14
🟢Gre 10
⚫NZF 9
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
In a sign of how wild 2020 was, National’s Stuart Smith saw his margin whittled to just 5%. The overall picture in 2023 will see that lead grow to nearer 35%. Labour’s Emma DeWhirst is unranked. NZ First candidate Jamie Arbuckle is as safe as any NZ First candidate at 6th on the list.
Kaipara ki Mahurangi
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Penk (list 18th) 56% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Wishart (n/a) 20% – 0%
⚫NZF – Marcroft (5th) 4% – 0%
History
➖➖🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 45
🟡ACT 15
🔴Lab 14
🟢Gre 11
⚫NZF 7
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
Another safe, uninteresting National seat for Twitter’s own Chris Penk. Fellow bipartisan Posters’ Caucus member Labour’s Marja Lubeck makes way for Guy Wishart in taking a 30%+ hiding.
NZ First’s Jenny Marcroft looks set to return to Parliament at 5th on their list.
Kelston
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Sepuloni (list 3rd) 54% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Schaumkel (42nd) 23% – 0%
🟢Gre – Ghahraman (7th) 8% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔴🔴🔵🔵🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 43
🔵Nat 23
🟢Gre 13
⚫NZF 7
🟡ACT 6
🔝TOP 2
Commentary
Labour Deputy Prime Minister (but not Deputy Leader) Carmel Sepuloni is set to retain the safe (as of the 2014 boundary change) Labour seat of Kelston.
At 42nd, National’s Ruby Schaumkel has no chance of election from the list, but the Green’s Golriz Ghahraman will be safely returned at 7th.
Mana
🔴Safe Labour hold
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Edmonds (list 18th) 53% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Hughes (33rd) 30% – 0%
Party vote
🔴Lab 37
🔵Nat 26
🟢Gre 15
🟡ACT 8
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
Labour’s Barbara Edmonds will be comfortably returned in deep-red Mana. More important than Mana’s pro-Labour lean is its tendency not to swing quite as much. Labour loyalty means only a -20ish swing versus a -25% swing nationwide.
On top of that, Edmonds was one of the better 2020 performers among National voters at 5% (3rd highest among non-incumbents). With voters swinging back to National from Labour, expect that figure to improve.
At 33rd on the list, National’s Frances Hughes would need a combination of good party vote performance and poor (other) candidate performances to be elected.
Māngere
🔴Safe Labour hold
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Sosene (list 53rd) 71% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Bourke (32nd) 13% – 0%
Party vote
🔴Lab 69
🔵Nat 11
⚫NZF 6
🟢Gre 5
🔣Oth 3
🟠TPM 2
Commentary
Māngere is not only deeply favourable to Labour (PVI+43): it’s also profoundly loyal to the party. For every 1% of swing nationwide, you only see a 0.4% swing in the seat (the second stickiest seat in the country for the party).
All of which is to say this will be an easy hold even for new candidate Lemauga Sosene. At 32nd, National’s Rosemary Bourke is probably beyond the list line (currently sits at 26/27) at this point, but the right combination of other National electorate candidates further down the list missing out could see her in.
Manurewa
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Williams (list 48th) 62% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Kilari (30th) 16% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 60
🔵Nat 18
⚫NZF 8
🟢Gre 4
🟡ACT 3
🔣Oth 3
Commentary
Third seat in Labour’s M-block heartland, and another easy hold for sophomore candidate Arena Williams. As with similar seats, Labour does both well (PVI+34) and are consistent (swing coefficient of just 0.6).
Williams was a strong performer compared to other new Labour candidates in 2020 (2nd with National voters on 6%, 3rd among Labour voters on 87%) so the controversy around her selection battle with Louisa Wall did not seem to affect her performance.
At 30th on the list, National’s Siva Kilare will probably be just outside contention but has a slightly better shot than the abovementioned Bourke and Hughes.
Maungakiekie
🔴Likely Labour hold
History
🔵🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Radhakrishnan (list 15th) 47% – odds 82%
🔵Nat – Fleming (65th) 38% – 12%
Party vote
🔴Lab 33
🔵Nat 33
🟢Gre 12
🟡ACT 10
⚫NZF 5
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
One of the fiercest contests in the country. In 2020, Maungakiekie was the best bellwether on the party vote (most closely resembled the nationwide party vote). Labour’s Priyanca Radhakrishnan managed only a 1.7% win in 2020 despite the nationwide tailwind.
This year the race looks set to be close again. The swing against Labour (though smaller than the nationwide swing) means on the party vote it’s likely a level 33/33 contest (although the Green vote is slightly larger than the ACT one).
Radhakrishnan is now running as an incumbent, potentially offsetting the swing. More important though is 2020 National candidate Denise Lee choosing not to stand again, given her very strong performance among Labour voters (18% in 2020).
If Radhakrishnan sees a generic level of incumbency advantage (the assumption made here) it should see her home fairly comfortably. Whether that happens is uncertain though, so Fleming still has a real chance. At 65th on the list he will need it.
A potential (unmodelled) factor could be an under-performance by controversial Green candidate Sapna Samant. Our current assumption is she’ll pick up 28% of the Green party vote, but if she doesn’t that may benefit Radhakrishnan.
Mount Albert
🔴Likely Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – White (list 47th) 37% – odds 80%
🟢Gre – Menendez March (8th) 31% – 18%
🔵Nat – Lee (13th) 25% – 2%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 29
🟢Gre 27
🔵Nat 25
🟡ACT 8
🔝TOP 5
⚫NZF 4
Commentary
2020 saw then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern wrack-up one of the largest individual candidate majorities of all time. Three factors will lead to a very different race in 2023. First – obviously – is Ardern’s retirement.
Second is the overall swing to National and the Greens (estimated +7 a piece). This would see the three parties within ~4 points of one another on the party vote.
The third factor – which will take some explaining – is the Greens’ decision to run a two-tick campaign.
To estimate the impact this might have on the race, we use Green candidate split performance in past two-tick campaigns. Specifically:
Coromandel in 2002,
Helensville* and Nelson in 2017; and
Auckland Central and Tāmaki Makaurau in 2020.
*Not strictly-speaking a formal two-tick campaign, but Green candidate Haley Holt’s performance resembled one.
The pattern across these races is that Green candidates do do better when they ask for the electorate vote. Unsurprisingly the effect is strongest with Green voters (80%, vs 37% across all races). But it also holds for Labour (30% vs 7%) and National (5% vs 1%) voters.
A complication with Labour voters is we don’t have any prior examples for head-to-head Labour vs Green contests. To account for this, we arbitrarily nerf the Green candidate share of Labour vote down to 15%.
Right, with that out of the way: new Labour candidate Helen White is likely to replace Ardern. The seat is baseline Labour/Green friendly (PVI +3 and +14 respectively), and Labour should narrowly lead the Greens on the party vote.
However, any one of three factors could tip it for Green candidate MP Ricardo Menendez-March. First, if the Greens improve their nationwide total the balance on the party vote will tip in the Greens’ favour (in Mt Albert the Greens get 1.3% for every 1% swing nationwide).
Second, the concerted campaign could lift the Green party vote more than expected (as it did in neighbouring Auckland Central in 2020). Finally, Labour voters may be less loyal to their candidate than Green voters are to theirs.
There is also an outside possibility of National’s Melissa Lee running up the middle. Earlier this year when the Greens decided to go for two-ticks and Labour were polling significantly better, this looked impossible. It’s still unlikely, but a 33/33 split might just do it.
On the list, Lee and Menendez March are reasonably safe at 13th and 8th respectively. White on the other hand will miss out at 47th if she repeats her 2020 Auckland Central result.
Mount Roskill
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Wood (list 45th) 55% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Cheung (48th) 34% – 0%
History
➖🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 39
🔵Nat 33
🟢Gre 11
🟡ACT 7
⚫NZF 5
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
Back into the conventional M-block, Mount Roskill should see incumbent Michael Wood easily hold on. Even if there’s a significant dip due to his scandals earlier this year (not modelled for here) an expected 20% buffer will be enough.
No candidates will be elected off the list.
Napier
🔵Safe National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Nimon (list 22nd) 51% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Hutchinson (60th) 34% – 0%
🟡ACT – Milewski (34th) 3% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 40
🔴Lab 25
🟡ACT 11
🟢Gre 10
⚫NZF 7
🟣Con 3
Commentary
Like its neighbour East Coast, Napier sees an incumbent resigning amid scandal turn a close race into an easy National gain. Retiring incumbent Stuart Nash (an over-performer with National and NZ First voters) would have struggled but may have got there even swimming against the tide.
Without that head start, Labour replacement Mark Hutchinson will not be able to retain the seat against new National candidate Katie Nimon.
Polling is broadly in line with this outcome (Curia, 20 Aug: 🔵Nat 35, 🔴Lab 27, 🟡ACT, 17), but saw a much higher than expected share for ACT’s Pawel Milewski. Given the decline in ACT support since mid-August, it would be very surprising to see their canddiate run that far ahead of the party vote.
No candidates will be elected off the list.
Nelson
🔴Likely Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Boyack (list 42nd) 47% – odds 90%
🔵Nat – Cameron (35th) 37% – 10%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 31
🔴Lab 27
🟢Gre 16
🟡ACT 10
⚫NZF 7
🔝TOP 4
Another race which sees a Labour class-of-2020 candidate defending their seat against a new National challenger, Nelson will probably see Labour incumbent Boyack hold on. However, if Boyack sees a worse-than-average incumbency bonus, National’s Cameron could take it.
A baseline Labour-Green leaning seat (combined PVI+5), National were able to hold the seat consistently from 1996-2020 thanks to immovable object Nick Smith’s superlative performances with Labour and Green voters.
The general trend away from National in 2017 would probably have seen even these efforts fail, were it not for a (reasonably successful) two-tick campaign by the Greens. In 2020, even a respectable 17% with Labour voters wasn’t enough.
With Smith retiring to the mayoralty, Boyack faces an easier but not guaranteed path. No candidates are electable list positions.
New Lynn
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Russell (list 22nd) 51% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Garcia (34th) 34% – 0%
🟢Gre – Abel (9th) 9% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 35
🔵Nat 30
🟢Gre 13
🟡ACT 8
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 2
Another safe red seat that will see the Labour incumbent (Russell) re-elected. At 34th on the list, National’s Garcia will in all likelihood miss out, but at 9th on his party’s list Green candidate Abel should be elected after a narrow miss in 2020.
New Plymouth
🔵Likely National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – MacLeod (list n/a) 52% – odds 85%
🔴Lab – Bennett (29th) 41% – 15%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 43
🔴Lab 21
🟡ACT 11
🟢Gre 9
⚫NZF 8
🔝TOP 4
Yet another of Labour’s new incumbents in a struggle to hold on, New Plymouth will most likely see National’s David MacLeod take over from Labour’s Glenn Bennett. Labour’s precipitous drop over the course of the year probably dooms Bennett, but there is some cause for hope.
Firstly, the absence of a Green candidate and the presence of an ACT one boosts his chances. Secondly, if he can over-perform as an incumbent with National and ACT voters then he might just pull it off.
If he does, National’s MacLeod is unranked so will miss out. Similarly, if MacLeod wins as expected, Bennett will likely miss out at 29th on the Labour list.
North Shore
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Watts (list 17th) 58% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Hampton (41st) 21% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 47
🔴Lab 14
🟡ACT 14
🟢Gre 13
⚫NZF 5
🔝TOP 4
A deeply blue (PVI+12) seat with a National incumbent holds little drama. No candidates will be elected from the list.
Northcote
🔵Lean National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Bidois (list 60th) 44% – odds 77%
🔴Lab – Halbert (28th) 40% – 23%
History
🔵🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 39
🔴Lab 24
🟢Gre 14
🟡ACT 10
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 4
Another replay of the 2020 contest with a former National incumbent (Bidois) looking to reclaim the seat from current Labour incumbent Halbert.
Neither candidate was an especially strong performer with the other party’s voters in 2020, and given both have held the seat, neither will probably benefit from incumbency advantage. The seat is slightly blue-leaning overall (PVI+4) and in a blue year Bidois should win out.
Neither candidate is in an especially electable list position, nor are any minor party candidates.
Northland
🔵Solid National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – McCallum (list n/a) 47% – odds 99%
🔴Lab – Prime (9th) 24% – 1%
⚫NZF – Jones (2nd) 16% – 0%
🟡ACT – Cameron (7th) 3% – 0%
🟣DNZ – King (1st) 3% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵(🔵/⚫)🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 37
🔴Lab 18
🟡ACT 12
⚫NZF 12
🟢Gre 11
🟣Con 3
A three-way race in a very red year saw Labour’s Prime just manage to claim the seat from National’s King by less than 1%. Her odds of a repeat are vanishingly small, but a complicated four-ish way race leaves the remotest path to victory.
First, NZ First deputy leader and TikTok sensation Shane Jones is again trying to claim the seat in more favourable circumstances for the party. Nevertheless, he is no Winston Peters when it comes to ability to attract National and Labour voters, so will not win the seat.
The other wildcard is 2020 National candidate now DemocracyNZ leader Matt King. Polling and fundamentals modelling show he won’t really be a factor, but outsider candidates with name recognition are very hard to predict.
Polling (Curia, 10 Sep: 🔵Nat 49, 🔴Lab 20, ⚫NZF 15, 🟣DNZ 5, 🟢Gre 5, 🟡ACT 3) is broadly in-line with expectations.
Prime (9th), Jones (2nd) and ACT’s Cameron (7th) are all in what should be electable positions. National’s McCallum is unranked.
Ōhāriu
🔴Lean Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – O'Connor (list n/a) 39% – odds 68%
🔵Nat – Willis (2nd) 36% – 32%
🔝TOP – Hammond (6th) 12% – 0%
🟢Gre – Rodgers (20th) 8% – 0%
History
🟣🟣🟣🟣🟣🟣🟣🔴🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 31
🔴Lab 27
🟢Gre 19
🟡ACT 9
🔝TOP 6
⚫NZF 4
Ōhāriu sees two-term Labour incumbent (Greg) O’Connor face off against National deputy leader Nicola Willis, who has moved up the hill from Wellington Central for a more realistic shot at an electorate seat.
Fundamentals favour O’Connor. The seat is baseline Labour-Green leaning (combined PVI+9, and net +6% over National/ACT even in a bad year), and O’Connor has averaged a respectable 9% with National voters in 2017 and 2020.
Despite her ascent within the party, Willis was not an especially strong candidate with Labour or Green voters in Wellington Central, although now in a race where she stands a real chance that may change.
The final complicating factor is repeat TOP candidate Hammond, who managed 11% in 2020 attempting to occupy the centrist niche once held by United-Future’s Peter Dunne.
If she loses, Willis is safe on the list at 2nd. O’Connor is unranked so relies on the seat. At 20th on the Green list, Rodgers is the last Green candidate with a mathematical (but very small) chance to election.
Ōtaki
🔵Solid National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Costley (list 64th) 48% – odds 90%
🔴Lab – Ngobi (46th) 40% – 50%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 38
🔴Lab 26
🟢Gre 11
🟡ACT 9
⚫NZF 9
🔝TOP 3
Another bellwether seat (6th most representative in 2020) Ōtaki sees a rematch between now-incumbent Ngobi of Labour and unsuccessful 2020 National candidate Costley. In 2020, an underwhelming 1% with National voters wasn’t enough to cost Ngobi, but 2023 will need improvement.
Given the swing back to National (and Ōtaki’s close following of the nationwide result, on current polling the seat is Costley’s to lose, but if she can hang on to enough departing swing voters, Ngobi has a small chance.