2023 electorate predictions - Parts 3 and 4
Had to break this up because email servers get grumpy when you drop 12,000 words in one go.
Parts 3 and 4 of the Twitter megathread on electorate predictions.
Pakuranga
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Brown (list 9th) 70% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Henry (61st) 22% – 0%
🟡ACT – Parmar (9th) 3% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 52
🔴Lab 16
🟡ACT 13
🟢Gre 7
⚫NZF 6
🟣Con 3
Commentary
National’s Simeon Brown did the best of any National candidate with Labour voters in 2020, with a full 25% of them. Even with a slight expected decline in this figure as many of those voters return to National, he will easily retain the seat.
On the list, Labour’s Nerissa Henry will not be elected at 61st, but ACT candidate (and former National MP) Parmjeet Parmar should be.
Palmerston North
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Utikere (list 25th) 52% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Bansal (52nd) 36% – 0%
🟢Gre – Tuiono (5th) 6% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 34
🔵Nat 30
🟢Gre 11
🟡ACT 9
⚫NZF 8
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
Labour candidate Tangi Utikere was the best-performing newcomer among Labour candidates in 2020, attracting 8% of votes from National voters, although some of this may be due to controversies surrounding then National candidate William Wood.
In 2023, now as an incumbent and with former Labour voters moving to National on the party vote, it’s highly likely he will improve on that figure.
National’s Ankit Bansal is not in an electable position at 52nd on the list. Green candidate Tenau Tuiono is at 5th.
Panmure-Ōtāhuhu
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Salesa (list 24th) 56% – odds 100%
🟢Gre – Collins (11th) 22% – 0%
🔵Nat – Randhawa (46th) 15% – 0%
🟡ACT – Modkova (12th) 3% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 64
🔵Nat 14
⚫NZF 6
🟢Gre 5
🟡ACT 4
🔣Oth 3
Commentary
A member of the M-block in spirit if no longer in name, Panmure-Ōtāhuhu (FKA: Manukau East) remains a safe Labour seat for incumbent Jenny Salesa, despite a two-tick challenge from the Greens’ Efeso Collins (former local councillor and unsuccessful 2022 mayoral candidate).
Applying the same assumptions as other Green two-tick campaigns, there are simply not enough Green voters here for Collins to have a realistic chance, even if he over-performs with Labour voters. At any rate, at 11th on the list he is safe on current polling.
A more interesting question for the Greens here is whether Collins’ campaign and profile in the community will be enough to lift the party’s party vote performance in an electorate they have previously struggled in.
National candidate Navtej Randhawa is at an unelectable 46th on the list, but ACT candidate Antonia Modkova is in a probably but not guaranteed 12th.
Papakura
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Collins (list 10th) 54% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Kanongata'a (34th) 30% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 41
🔴Lab 27
🟡ACT 12
⚫NZF 8
🟢Gre 5
🟣Con 2
Commentary
Then National leader Judith Collins won this exurban Auckland seat with a safe 14% margin in 2020. Despite the loss of a “favourite daughter” effect now that she’s left the leadership, she will still be safely returned in 2023.
At 34th on the party list, Labour candidate Anahila Kanongata'a will not see a return to Parliament.
Port Waikato
🔵Safe National hold
Candidates
🔵Nat – Bayly (list 15th)
🔴Lab – Keel (65th)
⚫NZF – Costello (3rd)
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 52
🟡ACT 15
🔴Lab 12
⚫NZF 8
🟢Gre 6
🟣Con 3
Commentary
With the sad news of ACT candidate Neil Christensen passing away, the candidate vote in Port Waikato will not be counted, and instead a byelection will be held following the general election.
The seat is safely National’s in any election (by or otherwise). The absence of 2020 Heartland candidate Mark Ball (who drew an impressive 21%) makes Bayly’s job significantly easier.
On the list (the only way candidates here can now qualify) Bayly is safe at 15th, as is NZ First candidate Casey Costello at 3rd. At 65th, Labour’s Gwendoline Keel will not make it to Parliament.
Rangitata
🔵Safe National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Meager (list n/a) 59% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Luxton (19th) 29% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 46
🔴Lab 21
🟡ACT 12
🟢Gre 8
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 2
Commentary
One of the signal victories for Labour in 2020, with Jo Luxton pulling of a sound 11% win over then-National candidate Megan Hands (who took over late in the piece from disgraced incumbent Andrew Faloon) Rangitata will be safely returning to National in 2023.
National’s James Meager will benefit from the expected net-41% swing on the party vote, and while Luxton will benefit somewhat from incumbency, it won’t be enough to overcome the disadvantage.
On current polling Luxton will not make it on the list at 19th, but could if other electorate results go against her colleagues in lower list spots.
Rangitīkei
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Redmayne (list 21st) 55% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Butt (n/a) 24% – 0%
🟡ACT – Hoggard (5th) 5% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 41
🔴Lab 18
🟡ACT 14
⚫NZF 9
🟢Gre 9
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
A dramatic moment early on election night showed then Labour candidate Soraya Peke-Mason ahead of National incumbent Ian McKelvie on the advance vote. The swing back to National once the on-day vote was counted eventually left McKelvie with a modest 7% lead.
This won’t be repeated in 2023. With McKelvie retiring and Peke-Mason moving to Te Tai Hauāuru, National’s Suze Redmayne will safely win the open contest.
ACT candidate and former President of Federated Farmers Andrew Hoggard will probably put a dent in Redmaye’s figures in this deeply rural seat, but without a formal two-tick run he won’t come close enough to affect the outcome. Ranked 5th, he’ll be elected from the list.
Remutaka
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Hipkins (list 1st) 56% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Chatterton (27th) 29% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 35
🔵Nat 29
🟢Gre 11
⚫NZF 9
🟡ACT 9
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
Then-COVID Response Minister now-Prime Minister Chris Hipkins was secondly only to then-Prime Minister now-Dame Jacinda Ardern in terms of cross-partisan support in 2020, pulling in 14% of National voters (on top of all the swing voters Labour pulled over).
As party leader, he can be expected to benefit from the “favourite son” premium, and running in a deep red seat, will be re-elected despite the overall swing back to National.
National candidate Emma Chatterton will currently be the first one to miss out on the list, but a swing of a few basis points or some unsuccessful candidates further down the list could see her in at 27th.
Rongotai
🟢Toss-up Green GAIN
Candidate vote
🟢Gre – Genter (list 4th) 38% – odds 54%
🔴Lab – Fitzsimons (56th) 37% – 46%
🔵Nat – Muthu (51st) 21% – 0.07%
🟡ACT – McKee (3rd) 1% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 33
🟢Gre 32
🔵Nat 17
🔝TOP 6
🟡ACT 5
⚫NZF 4
Commentary
When Julie Anne Genter and the Greens decided to launch an attempt on Rongotai in late 2022 following the party’s success the Wellington local elections, it looked like a long-shot but a respectable one. With events since then, Genter is *just* favoured to win.
First, incumbent Paul Eagle decided to retire following his unsuccessful mayoral bid (although whether this helped or harmed Labour’s chances is unknowable). Then Labour fell 10% in the polls and the Greens climbed 5%.
However, with no real precedent for a Labour vs Green race Labour candidate the contest with former councillor Fleur Fitzsimons will be incredibly close. National’s Muthu should be a distant third in any case, but in 1/1500 scenarios managed to perfectly split the difference.
As above for the other Green two-tick races, we’ve assumed Green voters are slightly more loyal to their candidates than Labour voters are to theirs (and artificially lowered the Lab>Green numbers out of an abundance of caution).
The specific split assumptions in this case is are (L/G/N):
🔴Lab voters 78/17/1
🟢Gre voters 18/81/1
🔵Nat voters 10/5/81
Nationwide polling and the seats party-vote lean of Gre+20 and Lab+7 leaves Labour and the Greens expected to be essentially level on the party vote (at 38 and 37 respectively). So while this is a hack point generally: turnout and ground game really will make the difference.
Rotorua
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – McClay (list 12th) 58% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Sandford (69th) 32% – 0%
🟠TPM – Raukawa-Tait (8th) 2% – 0%
History
🔵🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 40
🔴Lab 21
🟡ACT 12
⚫NZF 10
🟢Gre 8
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
A very close contest in 2020, National incumbent Todd McLay was only able to hang on by 2% off the back of a sizeable support from Labour voters.
With the swing back, the result here is not in doubt. And at 69th on the list, Labour's Sandford has no chance there either.
Of note is TPM candidate Merepeka Raukawa-Tait. She is not in serious contention for the seat or on the list at 8th, but the seat is one of TPM's best general seats, so a run makes sense in terms of lifting the party vote.
Selwyn
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Grigg (list 19th) 65% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Jones (74th) 27% – 0%
🟡ACT – Harvey (15th) 6% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 47
🟡ACT 16
🔴Lab 14
🟢Gre 12
⚫NZF 5
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
As blue as it gets, the race in Selwyn isn't that exciting, with National's Grigg coasting home.
At 74th on Labour's list, Labour's Luke Jones will not be elected.
ACT candidate Ben Harvey also misses out at 15th on current numbers, but could be in if the party's vote turns around.
Southland
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Mooney (list 53rd) 62% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – McCallum (70th) 21% – 0%
🟡ACT – Stephenson (4th) 4% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 49
🟡ACT 15
🔴Lab 13
🟢Gre 10
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
After a run of troubled candidates, Southland finally sees some stability with returning champion Joeseph Mooney.
At 4th on ACT’s list, newcomer Todd Stephenson will be joining him. At 70th, Labour candidate Simon McCallum will not be.
Taieri
🔴Solid Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Leary (list 52nd) 45% – odds 95%
🔵Nat – French (49th) 37% – 5%
🟢Gre – Willis (12th) 8% – 0%
⚫NZF – Patterson (4th) 4% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 33
🔴Lab 30
🟢Gre 14
🟡ACT 10
⚫NZF 7
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
It didn’t matter in 2020 given the overall state of things, but the boundary changes Taieri saw when it ceased being Dunedin South could now have a significant impact on this race. Labour incumbent Ingrid Leary should be safe: the seat still leans Labour by +4 on the party vote and incumbents do better than new candidates.
However, if she’s failed to win over voters in her term in office, or the polls are off in National’s favour, then National’s Matthew French could get there.
At 52nd and 49th on their lists respectively, both Leary and French depend on the seat. At 12th, Green candidate Scott Willis is most likely safe unless the Greens undershoot their polls significantly. At 4th for NZ First, Patterson is as safe provided they make the threshold.
Takanini
🔴Toss-up Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Leavasa (list 38th) 48% – odds 63%
🔵Nat – Nakhle (41st) 46% – 37%
History
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 43
🔴Lab 29
⚫NZF 9
🟡ACT 7
🟢Gre 6
🟣Con 2
Commentary
With the Labour wave in 2020, new seat Takanini did not attract much attention, with Labour’s Neru Leavasa getting home by 20%. However, the rematch with National’s Rima Nakhle will be close.
The seat – which mixes traditional Labour territory similar to the M-Block with more affluent parts of Manukau – is finely balanced in normal times, leaning towards both National (PVI+8) and Labour (PVI+3).
Given the limited available data here, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what will happen. Leavasa should see an incumbency bump, and unlike other close contests Hutt South or Northcote, Nakhle doesn’t have the benefit of being a former winner.
It’ll matter too, as neither candidate is in an electable list position.
Tāmaki
🔵Toss-up National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – O'Connor (list 54th) 43% – odds 59%
🟡ACT – Van Velden (2nd) 39% – 41%
🔴Lab – Solomone (59th) 17% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 52
🟡ACT 16
🔴Lab 12
🟢Gre 11
⚫NZF 4
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
Some analysis we did earlier in the year suggested Tāmaki would be a good candidate for ACT seeking to expand their reach beyond neighbouring Epsom: National and ACT combined have a super majority of voters, and it is reasonably ACT-leaning (PVI+6).
So Van Velden’s decision to contest it properly makes strategic sense in terms of providing a second anchor seat. The modelling (using a similar approach to the one we have for Labour-Green races) suggests she and National’s Simon O’Connor will run close.
A larger National bloc on the party vote with ACT falling away recently, and residual FPP voting patterns may hold O’Connor up. Difficult to predict is what Labour and Green voters will do given Labour candidate Solomone has no up-the-middle chance.
Previous results aren’t an especially useful guide given the circumstances, but O’Connor did score well with 2020 Labour voters at (16%, 8/30 incumbents). Van Velden’s below-average split performances in radically different Wellington Central is no guide.
Maybe the best comparison is Rodney Hide’s original 2005 run for Epsom, where he picked up 60% of National voters and even 10% of Labour ones without a nod from the mothership. This time around the party’s survival is not at stake though.
Polling (Curia, 28 Sep: 🔵Nat 40, 🟡ACT 38, 🔴Lab 14 and Sentio, 20 Jul: 🔵Nat 36, 🟡ACT 34, 🔴Lab 8) has been consistent with these assumptions, but it’s still a coinflip.
Tāmaki Makaurau
🔴Toss-up Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Henare (list 14th) 43% – odds 63%
🟠TPM – Kemp (6th) 40% – 37%
🟢Gre – Tana (13th) 11% – 0%
🔵Nat – Te Hau (38th) 5% – 0%
🟣FNZ – Tamaki (3rd) 1% – 0%
History
➖➖🔴🟠🟠🟠🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🟠TPM 36
🔴Lab 34
🟢Gre 11
⚫NZF 9
🔵Nat 4
🔣Oth 3
Commentary
Another close Māori seat contest sees Labour incumbent Peeni Henare take on newcomer Te Pāti Māori candidate Takutai Kemp. Factors discussed below make it difficult to pick, but even with a substantial swing towards TPM on current polling Henare is forecast to hang on.
The first difficulty is the high level of split-tick voting in both directions between Labour and TPM. It’s difficult to predict, but based on past results we’ve assumed Labour voters split 69/22 and TPM 60/30.
On top of that is how voting patterns will shift given that swing. On current numbers ~23% of voters will switch their party vote from Labour to TPM. As with Labour-National races, incumbents in Labour-TPM races tend to hold on to some (but not all) swing voters.
The a less stark partisan divide between Labour and TPM may make that more likely.
Then there are the other candidates. Green coleader Marama Davidson makes way for Darleen Tana. Without the coleader running a serious two-tick campaign (19% in 2020) more Green voters might split for either Labour or TPM.
National have also entered the candidate race with (former TPM Upper Harbour) candidate Hinuera Te Tau. It’s been 21 years since National stood a candidate, and they’ve never run against TPM in the Māori seats, so what the ~4% of National voters do could make a difference in a close race.
Finally, there is VisionNZ leader Hanah Tamaki. Vision (part of FreedomsNZ) are not forecast to do well in the Māori seats on past performance by Christian conservative parties (although this could be wrong given their different focus in 2023).
In terms of the list, Henare is in a relatively (but not completely) safe 14th spot. Kemp will in all likelihood miss out at 6th (and if TPM over-perform that much, she will probably win the seat regardless).
Tana is fairly (although again not completely) safe at 13th for the Greens. Te Tau will miss out at 38th for National.
Taranaki-King Country
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Kuriger (list 36th) 62% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Roberts (35th) 26% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 46
🔴Lab 15
🟡ACT 14
🟢Gre 8
⚫NZF 8
🟣Con 3
Commentary
A safe National seat for incumbent Barbara Kuriger. The lack of an ACT candidate with the late withdrawal of will boost her performance further, but with the seat leaning PVI+11 towards National she won’t need it.
At 35th on the list, current Labour list MP Angela Roberts would have been safe in an OK year for Labour, but with their nationwide vote under 30%, she is all but guaranteed an exit.
Taupō
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Upston (list 6th) 62% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Al-Bustanji (64th) 20% – 0%
🟡ACT – Cozens (19th) 5% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 47
🔴Lab 16
🟡ACT 13
⚫NZF 9
🟢Gre 7
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
Once upon a time Taupō was a contestable seat for Labour, but with boundary, demographic, and economic changes over time that has ceased to be the case (on average losing 1% per cycle on the party vote, net of nationwide swings). National incumbent Louise Upston wins easily.
At 64th on the list, Labour’s Al-Bustanji is out of reach. There was probably a point earlier in the year where ACT’s Zane Cozens had a look in at 19th, but given the shift in polling he’ll miss out.
Tauranga
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Uffindell (list 57th) 56% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Tinetti (6th) 21% – 0%
⚫NZF – Harvey (10th) 5% – 0%
🟡ACT – Young (18th) 5% – 0%
History
⚫⚫⚫🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 47
🔴Lab 13
🟡ACT 12
⚫NZF 10
🟢Gre 9
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
Starting again with another fairly mundane blue seat. 2022 byelection opponents Sam Uffindell of National and Janette Tinetti of Labour square off again. Despite a scandals. Uffindell has retained his party’s backing, and with it will retain the seat.
Byelection ACT candidate Cameron Luxton over-performed expectations, so there’s a possibility replacement Christine Young also makes a good showing, but in 2023 that won’t affect the outcome.
Tinetti is one of the few Labour MPs who’s genuinely safe on the list, so will return to Parliament regardless at 6th. NZ First’s Erika Harvey is probably out of contention at 10th, but if the party can replicate some of their previous over-performances she might sneak in.
Te Atatū
🔴Solid Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Twyford (list 49th) 47% – odds 99.6%
🔵Nat – Nicholas (39th) 32% – 0.3%
🟠TPM – Tamihere (26th) 10% – 0%
🟡ACT – Court (8th) 4% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 37
🔵Nat 32
🟢Gre 10
⚫NZF 7
🟡ACT 7
🔝TOP 2
Commentary
Labour veteran Phil Twyford ought to be returned for a fifth time around. Despite the swing, the seat is still Labour PVI+11 on the party vote, and Labour and the Greens combined still comfortably leade National and ACT by a combined 8%.
The one complicating factor in some extreme edge cases is Te Pāti Māori president and former co-leader John Tamihere. If his name recognition and standing in this west Auckland community can pull a combined 10% from Labour, Green, and NZ First voters, it could just do enough.
We think it’s a very, very remote possibility, but if it happens then National’s Angee Nichols might make a surprise trip to Wellington. At 49th and 39th on the list, neither major party candidate is electable from there.
Tamihere’s list position at 26th puts him well out of contention, so his presence here is largely part of TPM’s attempts to lift their party vote with the general roll. Current ACT list MP Simon Court is on his way back at 8th.
Te Tai Hauāuru
🟠Toss-up Māori GAIN
Candidate vote
🟠TPM – Ngarewa-Packer (list 1st) 56% – odds 63%
🔴Lab – Peke-Mason (n/a) 37% – 37%
🔵Nat – Hipango (31st) 6% – 0%
History
⚫🔴(🔴/🟠)🟠🟠🟠🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 39
🟠TPM 30
🟢Gre 11
⚫NZF 8
🔵Nat 4
🔣Oth 4
Commentary
Te Pāti Māori’s best chance of a pick up in 2023 sees co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer take on Labour list MP Soraya Peke-Mason. Given the expected swing towards TPM and Ngarewa-Packer’s near miss (4%) in 2020, she is probably marginally ahead.
Labour incumbent and Speaker Adrian Rurawhe’s decision to go list-only adds to Ngarewa-Packer’s chances, but given the uncertain split vote loyalties between Labour and TPM in the Māori seats, Peke-Mason still has a solid chance.
As with Tāmaki-Makaurau, the entry of a National candidate (list MP Harete Hipango) adds another complication (albeit a small one given National and ACT only poll an expected 5% combined). She won’t win, but could hurt Ngarewa-Packer’s chances.
Dame Tariana Turia’s win in the 2004 by-election was what gave TPM their start following the break with Labour over the Foreshore and Seabed legislation, so the party’s roots here run fairly deep. However, Turia has endorsed National’s Hipango.
If that matters to TPM voters, then it could make a difference (not modelled for).
Opinion polling sees a very different race, with Peke-Mason 5% ahead. (Curia, 19 Sep: 🔴Lab 34 🟠TPM 29 🔵Nat 12). Given the party vote in the poll showed National on a very surprising 12% (which would be a Māori seat record) it’s tempting to be sceptical.
At 1st on the TPM list, Ngarewa-Packer will get a list spot if there any to go around (which there may not be depending on other races). Peke-Mason is list-only, and Hipango is in a marginal (marginally out) 31st.
Te Tai Tokerau
🔴Lean Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Davis (list 2nd) 47% – odds 71%
🟠TPM – Kapa-Kingi (7th) 38% – 28%
🟢Gre – Lyndon (10th) 9% – 0%
History
⚫🔴🔴🟠(🟠/🟤)🟤🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🟠TPM 41
🔴Lab 30
⚫NZF 10
🟢Gre 8
🔵Nat 4
🔣Oth 4
Commentary
Labour Deputy Leader Kelvin Davis faces a stiff challenge from Te Pāti Māori’s Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. On the one hand, the swing towards TPM will probably put them in front on the party vote. But in Davis’ favour, he has historically done well with TPM voters.
This effect should only increase as voters swing away from Labour. The sizeable number of expected NZ First voters (their best electorate in 2020 with 7.1% of the vote) probably also boost Davis, given they’ve tended to favour Labour over TPM.
An additional uncertainty is the two-tick campaign from Green candidate Huhana Lyndon. Difficult to say which candidate this will benefit, although Green voters have historically marginally preferred Labour to TPM or MANA candidates.
At 2nd on the list, Davis is safe in any case. Lyndon should also be unless the Greens have an incredibly bad night. At 7th, Kapa-Kingi will miss out.
Te Tai Tonga
🔴Likely Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Tirikatene (list 21st) 51% – odds 82%
🟠TPM – Ferris (5th) 44% – 18%
History
⚫🔴🔴🔴🟠🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔴Lab 33
🟠TPM 25
🟢Gre 16
🔵Nat 8
⚫NZF 8
🔝TOP 4
Commentary
The Tirikatene whanau in Te Tai Tonga, there probably isn’t a lot more to say. Their standing in the electorate is near-unimpeachable, but Te Pāti Māori candidate Tākuta Ferris will try anyway.
Ferris did manage a respectable 25% on just 9% of the party vote in 2020. If TPM do as well as is anticipated at nearer 25% this time around, there is some remote chance he’s able to do it. At 5th on the list, he’s next cab off the rank on current polling, so may not need to.
The seat is National’s strongest among the Māori seats, with an expected 9% (and even 6% in the depths of 2020), and National voters favoured Ferris 2:1 over Tirikatene in 2020.
Tukituki
🔵Solid National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Wedd (list 23rd) 51% – odds 98%
🔴Lab – Lorck (40th) 36% – 2%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 42
🔴Lab 21
🟡ACT 12
🟢Gre 10
⚫NZF 7
🟣Con 3
Commentary
Labour incumbent and vitamins enthusiast Anna Lorck was able to tip out National incumbent Lawrence Yule off the back of the red wave. She faces an incredibly difficult task repeating the effort against National challenger Catherine Wedd.
Lorck’s performance among National voters was an OK 3% (3rd best out of Labour candidates challenging incumbents). Even if she is able to improve on these numbers as an incumbent and with swing voters moving back to National, she’ll struggle on a net-40% swing.
While it has an urban core of Labour-leaning territory around Hastings, the seat is a very bluish purple at PVI+7 for National and PVI-4 for Labour. By contrast, neighbouring Napier (where Stuart Nash was able to win in the lean years) only favours National by +5 on net.
Wedd would be in on the list on current polling at 23rd, but a swing against National on polling day and a few wins for candidates deeper down the list could change that.
Upper Harbour
🔵Solid National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Brewer (list 62nd) 47% – odds 99%
🔴Lab – Walters (30th) 32% – 1%
🟢Gre – Doyle (33rd) 6% – 0%
⚫NZF – Wilson (9th) 6% – 0%
🟡ACT – Chhour (6th) 5% – 0%
History
➖➖➖➖➖➖🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 43
🔴Lab 24
🟡ACT 11
🟢Gre 8
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
Like Tukituki, Upper Harbour a seat Labour can hope to win open in a good year, or even against an incumbent in a great one. As mentioned repeatedly in this thread: 2023 is at best mediocre, so even with incumbency and facing a new challenger Walters’ chances are dire.
2020 National candidate Jake Bezzant is replaced by former (non-local) councillor Cameron Brewer, a switch which can only improve National’s chances.
At 30th on the list, Walters’ is largely out of contention. NZ First’s David Wilson at 9th stands some chance, and ACT MP Karen Chhour is assured a place at 6th.
Waiariki
🟠Safe Māori hold
Candidate vote
🟠TPM – Waititi (list 2nd) 66% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Boynton (39th) 32% – 0%
🟣FNZ – Hunia (12nd) 3% – 0%
History
⚫🔴🔴🟠🟠🟠🟠🟠🟠
Party vote
🟠TPM 41
🔴Lab 33
🟢Gre 8
⚫NZF 7
🔣Oth 3
🔵Nat 3
Commentary
Te Pāti Māori candidate Rawiri Waititi’s surprising (but not shocking) 2020 win in Waiariki was responsible for reviving Te Pāti’s fortunes following their stint in the wilderness. In 2023, anything other than a solid victor for him would be a surprise.
Waiariki is TPM’s best seat overall (part of the reason Waititi won when Ngarewa-Packer and Tamihere didn’t) and there should be a significant swing to the party based on nationwide polling.
Waititi did well with Labour voters in 2020 (34% of splits) but that could go either way in 2023: on the plus side he’s now an incumbent and TPM more align with Labour, on the downside, many of those split voters will have moved to TPM on the party vote.
Polling is consistent with the expected outcome (Curia, 9 Oct: 🟠TPM 50, 🔴22)
No candidates will be elected from the list.
Waikato
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Van De Molen (list 58th) 68% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Toko (73rd) 24% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 49
🔴Lab 14
🟡ACT 14
⚫NZF 9
🟢Gre 6
🟣Con 3
Commentary
Even in 2020, National’s Tim Van de Molen won by 13%. It will come as a shock to no one that he will win it again.
No candidates will be elected from the list.
Waimakariri
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Doocey (list 8th) 60% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Rosewarne (32nd) 27% – 0%
🟣LBP – Baker (2nd) 5% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 44
🔴Lab 19
🟡ACT 13
🟢Gre 10
⚫NZF 7
🟣Con 3
Commentary
A seat that National did well to hang onto in 2020, given that in past waves Labour were able to win it. National incumbent Matt Doocey has an easier time of it in his third rematch with Labour’s Dan Rosewarne.
Leighton Baker Party leader (Leighton Baker) will probably get his deposit back given the seat is one where outsider conservatives do well.
At 32nd on the Labour list, Rosewarne won’t be returned to Parliament.
Wairarapa
🔵Toss-up National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Butterick (list 61st) 45% – odds 52%
🔴Lab – McAnulty (16th) 43% – 48%
🟢Gre – Wade-Brown (15th) 5% – 0%
History
🔵🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 41
🔴Lab 21
🟡ACT 12
⚫NZF 10
🟢Gre 10
🔝TOP 2
Commentary
The closest race in the country. Class-of-2020 incumbent Labour’s Kieran McAnulty is in an incredibly close fight to retain his seat against in a rematch with National’s Mike Butterick. We’ve got this as a toss-up National gain because you’ve gotta take a position but 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️.
The race isn’t just close in terms of margin (2%) but is uncertain on top of that.
Starting with the basics: the seat leans National by PVI+6 on the party vote, and there’s also a significant NZ First PVI+3 contingent. Butterick starts with a net +15% lead between National and ACT vs Labour and the Greens on the party vote.
In McAnulty’s favour, he was the best performer for Labour in an open seat, picking up 4.4% of National voters. Incumbency and retaining voters shifting to other parties on the party vote should lift that figure.
There’s a large uncertainty about the strength of the incumbency effect, so a significant win by McAnulty isn’t actually out of the question.
Added to this is the impact of other candidates (or lack thereof). First, the Green Celia Wade-Brown could act as a mild spoiler: although she was only mayor over the hill so that might not count for much. In 2020 Green voters seemed to understand the FPP dynamic (19% two-ticks).
The absence of an NZ First candidate probably works in McAnulty’s favour. NZ First voters historically tended to favour Labour candidates by an average of 14%, or much more then there’s either no NZF candidate or one not called Ron Mark.
Given shifting voter bases and partisan alignments though, this may not hold true in 2023, so wide confidence intervals.
If McAnulty does miss out, his list position at 16th is shaky. He’d miss out on current estimates, but as with many marginal candidates, a polling miss in Labour’s favour or some losses further down the list could see him in.
Butterick is all-or-nothing in the seat race given he’s 61st on the list. Wade-Brown would be in on current numbers at 15th, but a polling miss against the Greens could still see her out.
Waitaki
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Anderson (list 59th) 56% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Reille (76th) 22% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 44
🔴Lab 16
🟡ACT 15
🟢Gre 12
⚫NZF 6
🔝TOP 3
Commentary
National newcomer Miles Anderson (taking over from retiring incumbent Jacqui Dean) is a shoe-in. Many moons, boundary shifts, and demographic shifts ago Labour were able to pull off a win here (and got within 7% of an incumbent in 2020). Not any more.
Riding in the caboose at 76th, Labour challenger Ethan Reille won’t be elected from the list.
Wellington Central
🟢Likely Green GAIN
Candidate vote
🟢Gre – Paul (list n/a) 41% – odds 82%
🔴Lab – Omer (37th) 31% – 18%
🔵Nat – Sheeran (45th) 24% – 0%
History
🟡🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🟢Gre 38
🔴Lab 26
🔵Nat 17
🔝TOP 8
🟡ACT 6
⚫NZF 3
Commentary
Like its neighbour Rongotai to the south, Wellington Central sees a close contest between Labour and the Greens to replace a Labour incumbent (Grant Robertson, now list-only) in a deeply red-green seat that’s been getting greener overtime.
Again, there’s no good precedent for a Labour-Green head-to-head, so there’s a lot of uncertainty about what the two party’s voters will do. But given how baseline Green the seat is, we have local councillor Tamatha Paul ahead of Labour list MP Ibrahim Omer.
The Green’s strongest (PVI+25) seat in the country by a wide margin, and one where their current nationwide polling would have them winning the party vote (even if the assumption that the long-term +2% per cycle trend abates). Labour also do narrowly better here at PVI+1.
What this would mean for the candidate race is that unlike colleagues in the other red-green races, Paul is not relying on doing better with Labour voters than Omer does with Green ones (and conversely: Omer is).
Polling had a much closer race with Omer ahead (Reid, 14 Sep: 🔴Lab 31 🟢Gre 27 🔵Nat 28) but given it also showed a -4 swing away from the Greens on the back of a nationwide swing of +4 towards them, I’d be cautious about relying on it too much.
So advantage Paul, but if the Greens underperform their polls (either locally or nationally) and Omer does well with Green (and National – Sheeran is not a factor in his own right here) voters, then he still has a shot.
None of the candidates will get in on the list: Omer and Sheeran are too low at 37th and 49th respectively, and Paul is unranked.
West Coast-Tasman
🔴Solid Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – O'Connor (list 10th) 46% – odds 95%
🔵Nat – Pugh (26th) 37% – 5%
🟣FNZ – Grey (2nd) 4% – 0%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔵🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 32
🔴Lab 27
🟢Gre 13
🟡ACT 12
⚫NZF 7
🔣Oth 3
Commentary
Another 2020 rematch, but one that should see incumbent (Damian) O’Connor hold on. However, Pugh’s chances are significantly better than being struck by lightning a fourth time.
The seat is purple purple, leaning narrowly towards Labour at PVI+1 and slightly against National at PVI-2. On current polling and adding in ACT and the Greens (who both over-poll here) it’s currently estimated at a narrow +3 on net for the right.
However, in O’Connor’s favour he’s historically done well with National votes (averaging 13% - albeit only 4% in 2020 when many of those split voters moved to Labour). There’s some uncertainty about whether he recovers this position on the swing however.
The other wild card is FreedomsNZ’s Sue Grey. We have her on 4%, but with wide uncertainties. WCT has been (comparatively) favourable territory for outsider parties like Ban1080 or Advance/NZPP, and her profile in the anti-mandate community may draw voters from other parties.
O’Connor is at a marginal 10th on the list, but should be safe on current figures. Pugh is currently last one-on at 26th, but a small swing against National or surprise results lower down would have her gone.
Whanganui
🔵Lean National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Bates (list 47th) 44% – odds 68%
🔴Lab – Lewis (50th) 42% – 32%
History
🔴🔴🔴🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 37
🔴Lab 27
⚫NZF 10
🟡ACT 10
🟢Gre 8
🔣Oth 2
Commentary
Another knife-edge defensive effort by a 2020 Labour incumbent. On current polling we have National’s Carl Bates narrowly ahead of Labour’s Steph Lewis, but that could easily switch.
On the party vote the seat is very close in normal times: both National (PVI+2) and Labour (PVI+1) slightly over-performing. On current polling this gives National a comfortable 10% lead locally.
In Lewis’ favour, and making this a closer contest than other +10% races, she performed the best out of all Labour candidates challenging an incumbent at 3.4% with National voters and 88% of Labour one (with Labour voters she was 6th overall, impressive as a newcomer).
She should be able to build on both those figures as an incumbent and with swing voters voting back home to National but sticking with her for the second tick. Whether she can win will depend on how much. Currently we think just not enough.
At 50th and 47th on the list, neither candidate has that as a backup plan.
Whangaparāoa
🔵Safe National hold
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Mitchell (list 11st) 65% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Muller Pallarès (55th) 19% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
Party vote
🔵Nat 51
🟡ACT 15
🔴Lab 10
🟢Gre 9
⚫NZF 7
🟣Con 4
Commentary
Profoundly blue-yellow exurban Auckland seat: an easy win for incumbent Mark Mitchell.
Other random observation: this is a seat where the more religiously-inclined outsider right parties can expect to do well on the party vote given historic patterns.
Whangārei
🔵Safe National GAIN
Candidate vote
🔵Nat – Reti (list 4th) 50% – odds 100%
🔴Lab – Warren-Clark (43rd) 31% – 0%
History
🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 37
🔴Lab 19
⚫NZF 12
🟢Gre 11
🟡ACT 11
🔝TOP 3
One of the reach seats that Labour managed to win for the first time under MMP in 2020, this was always going to be struggle for Labour to defend. The loss of incumbency with the departure of Labour’s Emily Henderson and former incumbent Shane Reti will give it to National.
Reit performed about par with Labour voters in 2020 at 13%, a figure that might slip somewhat as those voters return to National. On the other hand, in some ways he’s more like an incumbent now, so might retain those figures.
At any rate, he only lost by a narrow 1% in 2020. Replacement Labour candidate and incumbent list MP Angie Warren-Clark will miss out on the list at 43rd.
Wigram
🔴Safe Labour hold
Candidate vote
🔴Lab – Woods (list 5th) 50% – odds 100%
🔵Nat – Summerfield (37th) 33% – 0%
History
⚪⚪⚪⚪⚪🔴🔴🔴🔴
Party vote
🔵Nat 32
🔴Lab 30
🟢Gre 15
🟡ACT 7
⚫NZF 7
🔝TOP 5
Commentary
An easy one to round things out. Labour’s Megan Woods will be safely returned in Wigram over National challenger Tracy Summerfield. While the seat leans Labour overall (PVI+4, with PVI+3 for the Greens for good measure), on current polling National should be narrowly ahead here.
However, strong support from Labour voters, respectable levels from Green ones, and a modest showing with National ones give Woods a safe buffer.
No candidates will be elected from the list.